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Post: ndz lut 10, 2013 1:10 am 
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Hej, przeglądaj forum blowoutcards znalazłem coś takiego : Dokładny przelicznik na paczki danych kart i założenia, że niektóre refractory są niskolimitowane :
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One of the reasons why I am not a big fan of Panini is because they don’t publish the hit rates of their inserts. But if they think they can keep it secret, they are wrong. I calculated them myself

For everyone who wants to know how many boxes you theoretically need to buy to hit a Gold Prizm and for everyone who wants to know how many copies there are of the Prizm Refractors…


Just a quick word on how I calculated all this:
I collected basic data of almost 1000 2012-13 Panini Prizm Hobby box breaks which I found on various websites. Don't worry, it sounds like a lot of work, but it wasn't. Eventually I decided to base my calculations mainly on the data of case breaks, because the data of the separate box breaks was too much influenced by the fact that people, not surprisingly, were more likely to post their break if they had hit a big card, in this case a Gold Prizm.
Eventually, I could use 48 Prizm case breaks to do my calculations.

I will not go into deep detail here about the calculations, but if anyone is interested, just let me know.


TOTAL PRODUCTION
All calculations that I did, mainly based on the insert rate of the Gold Prizms and Autograph Prizms in the 48 case breaks, point towards a production of 1500 cases, 18000 boxes or 360000 packs of 2012-13 Panini Prizm Hobby.

GOLD PRIZMS /10
400 different Gold Prizm cards (300 base, 38 Finalists, 25 MVP, 25 Downtown Bound and 12 USA Basketball), so 4000 Gold Prizm cards in total. On average 2.67 Gold Prizms per case or a hit rate of 1:90 packs.

The 300 Base Gold Prizms come on average exactly 2 per case, at a hit rate of 1:120 packs.
The 100 Insert Gold Prizms come 0.67 per case, at a hit rate of 1:360 packs.
Finalists Prizms 1:947 packs.
MVP Prizms & Downtown Bound Prizms 1:1440 packs.
USA Basketball Prizms 1:3000 packs.

AUTOGRAPH PRIZMS /25
It turns out that Autograph Prizms are not only inserted in the Hobby boxes, but also in the Retail boxes. My data showed that every case held about 1.067 AU Prizms, or a hit rate of 1:225 packs, whereas the hit rate would have been 1:144 packs (or 1.67 per case) if all 2500 Autograph Prizm cards (100*25) would have been inserted in the Hobby boxes.
This would roughly mean that 1600 of the 2500 AU Prizms are inserted in Hobby and 900 are reserved for Retail.

BASE PRIZMS
As you know, the Prizms or Refractors in this product do not have a serial number.
Interestingly, almost every box of 2012-13 Panini Prizm contains exactly 3 Base Prizms. About 1 box out of 10 has 2 or 4 Base Prizms, but this equals out in the end. Base Prizm therefore has a hit rate of 1:6.7 packs.
This also means that there are 180 Prizms copies of every Base card!

INSERT SETS PRIZMS
This was hard to calculate because the data set was very limited. Therefore I can only give an indication of the rates for the 4 sets of Insert Prizms together (MVP, Downtown Bound, USA Basketball and Finalists). Insert Prizms have a hit rate of 1:60 packs (or 1:3 boxes) and that would mean that the Prizm Insert cards are limited to 60!

GREEN PRIZMS
Yeah, I would also like to know how many copies of the Green Prizms are out there. Unfortunately it is not possible to calculate this. There are no cards with a serial number in the 2012-13 Panini Prizm Retail boxes, so it is impossible to calculate how many boxes are produced (or will be produced!).
Just for your reference: it seems that there are 3-3.5 Green Prizms per box. That would mean a hit rate of 1:7-1:8 retail packs.
For the same reason it is not possible to calculate the total number of produced Base, Autograph and Insert sets.

Thanks for the read! Let me know if there are more numbers you would like to know.

Edit: info on Autograph Prizms /25 updated

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